“We’re not there yet,” economist to CSIA
Alan Beaulieu was right on regarding the economic slow down in the U.S. when he said that oil price pressures would filter down to the general economy late in 2007.
He predicted that fact back in 2006, as well as a move into a recession in late 2008 resulting in the election of a Democratic president to take over in January 2009.
Now he says that recession will more likely transpire in 2009 and continue into 2010.
Beaulieu is principal, Institute for Trend Research in New Hampshire and has been since 1990. He keynoted Thursday at the 15th Annual Control System Integrators Association Executive Conference in Savannah, Ga.
Two thirds of the economists say we are in a recession now, the media says we’ve been in a recession since back when. “Well guess what? The numbers came out this week and the U.S. had positive growth in the first quarter of 2008,” Beaulieu said.
“The definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. We haven’t had even one yet.” Nevertheless, it’s on the way and Beaulieu was in Savannah to point out how to prepare one’s business for the impending contraction.
“We’re going to have a harder landing than I thought last year. It’s going to be more painful than we originally predicted and it’s going to last through 2010. This is according to our numbers,” he said.
He blamed a lot on the ineffectiveness of the government who he sees as “institutionalizing risk-free investment” by bailing out banks and mortgage holders who make bad decisions and poor investments. “This isn’t capitalism, it’s socialism.”
He also pointed to the present administration’s spending habits. “During the Clinton years we had something called “pay go” which meant Congress couldn’t budget something without providing for a way to pay for it. We now have “no pay go.”
Beaulieu joked, “I have kids like that. They’ve never had jobs either.”
He was optimistic about the U.S. fundamentals and pointed to the great demographics of America. “We’ve got everything in order here to continue to be the greatest economy. We have rule of law and a fertility rate over 2.1.”
He sees the demographics of the USA, India, Indonesia, and Australia as admirable and worthy of a sound economic future. Negative demographics persist and don’t bode well for China, Europe, Japan, and Russia.
‑ Nicholas Sheble
He predicted that fact back in 2006, as well as a move into a recession in late 2008 resulting in the election of a Democratic president to take over in January 2009.
Now he says that recession will more likely transpire in 2009 and continue into 2010.
Beaulieu is principal, Institute for Trend Research in New Hampshire and has been since 1990. He keynoted Thursday at the 15th Annual Control System Integrators Association Executive Conference in Savannah, Ga.
Two thirds of the economists say we are in a recession now, the media says we’ve been in a recession since back when. “Well guess what? The numbers came out this week and the U.S. had positive growth in the first quarter of 2008,” Beaulieu said.
“The definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. We haven’t had even one yet.” Nevertheless, it’s on the way and Beaulieu was in Savannah to point out how to prepare one’s business for the impending contraction.
“We’re going to have a harder landing than I thought last year. It’s going to be more painful than we originally predicted and it’s going to last through 2010. This is according to our numbers,” he said.
He blamed a lot on the ineffectiveness of the government who he sees as “institutionalizing risk-free investment” by bailing out banks and mortgage holders who make bad decisions and poor investments. “This isn’t capitalism, it’s socialism.”
He also pointed to the present administration’s spending habits. “During the Clinton years we had something called “pay go” which meant Congress couldn’t budget something without providing for a way to pay for it. We now have “no pay go.”
Beaulieu joked, “I have kids like that. They’ve never had jobs either.”
He was optimistic about the U.S. fundamentals and pointed to the great demographics of America. “We’ve got everything in order here to continue to be the greatest economy. We have rule of law and a fertility rate over 2.1.”
He sees the demographics of the USA, India, Indonesia, and Australia as admirable and worthy of a sound economic future. Negative demographics persist and don’t bode well for China, Europe, Japan, and Russia.
‑ Nicholas Sheble
posted by ISA at 9:57 AM
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