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August 2009

Will the real leader please stand up

By Gregory Hale, InTech, Editor

For the longest time, “the experts” across the world said global warming was occurring because of carbon emissions; everyone jumped on board and said, “Of course, that has to be the reason. All the numbers indicate that has to be the reason.”

Now, however, there is a new study that says, “Not so fast, what ‘the experts’ have always said may only be half the story.” The other half is still up in the air.

“In a nutshell, theoretical models cannot explain what we observe in the geological record,” said Oceanographer Gerald Dickens, a co-author of the new study and professor of Earth science at Rice University. “There appears to be something fundamentally wrong with the way temperature and carbon are linked in climate models.”

Whether the new study ends up de-bunking the traditional mindset, or turns out to be untrue, the fact is there is never really one true answer.

Isn’t it funny, when there is a down cycle, people become “the experts” at knowing the future based on results from the last couple of months. Short-term memory can be a powerful tool or a horrible weapon.

These “experts” just do not have the ability to put a business cycle in perspective. They look at what has happened in the past six months or so and say that is the way it is going to be over the next 18 months. That parochial mindset often has a cascading affect much like marines marching in a parade, one just follows the other.

We all work in an engineering environment where numbers thrive. A look at the latest spreadsheet and, whamo, you have a trend. But what about the people? Where do the nuances fit in? If the automation business relies upon relationships, then what will happen if everyone relies upon numbers and forgets about what got them there in the first place: People?

“We did poorly in the first half of this year, so therefore we have to cut people, cut the business, cut this and cut that.” Whatever happened to looking at the trends over the long term? If heads of companies weren’t worried about keeping their own jobs and looked at how the company was performing up until the economic collapse, then maybe these insane ideas would disappear. What changed? Where is the leadership?

If companies continue cutting away from the core operation, then there will be no way to return. It is that simple. But it also is apparent company leaders that continue slashing from their core do not have a plan for the future, they just want to survive for now. How sad.

No one said getting through these times was going to be a walk in the park, but it does not also mean there are no growth opportunities. Rest assured, when one company decides to make an improper divestiture of people or products, a different organization that truly gets it will walk in, seize the opportunity, and win out over the long haul. That is the type of organization that has long-term and short-term memory.

One of the clichés going around now is “things will never be the same again.” Well, no, they most likely won’t be the same, but that does not mean the opportunities for huge gains are not there anymore. Growth will be there for the folks who ask the right questions, listen to the answers, and execute on a well thought-out plan.

Talk to me: ghale@isa.org or (919) 990-9275.