12 February 2009

Pinto's Point

Vision for 2012

By Jim Pinto

For hundreds of years, prophets and priests have forecast the coming decade. Today, most scholars and futurists foresee major upheaval on the horizon, which few can deny.

John L. Petersen is head of The Arlington Institute and a noted futurist. His perspectives on what lies ahead come from having worked in the military, for the National Security Council at the White House, in business, real estate development, advertising, marketing, and the nonprofit world.

In his book, A Vision for 2012, Planning for Extraordinary Change, Petersen explains how the world is on the verge of several crises, some of which may occur concurrently to force major changes on society and even civilization as we know it today.

Here are the key shifts, which few can doubt could happen at any time:

• Global financial system breakdown (already happening)
• Rapid climate change (still being endlessly debated)
• Serious oil shortages (undeniable)
• A bird-flu pandemic (remains a threat)
• New levels of sophisticated terrorism (key uncertainty that could happen anytime)

For some, the year 2012 is a year of foretold doom. Not just an alarmist, Petersen highlights the coming scientific and technological breakthroughs which may help humankind not just to cope, but evolve through the immense challenges that lie ahead. He balances one set of trend lines with others that hold out positive possibilities.

But there is no way around the need for government planning and action. Governments and society in general usually act conservatively; they plan and deal in the less painful policy of incremental, short term advance, until a crisis occurs. Things can be different if we work together to think, plan, and push for change. Can that happen?

Related Links:

• Review and buy this book at Amazon.com:
  http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1555916619/jimpintocom/103-0805027-7623017
• Read Reviews & Commentary
  http://www.visionfor2012.com/
• Vision 2012: Towards an Internet of Services
  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jc2Y53QqO3c

Behind the byline

Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and founder of Action Instruments. You can e-mail him at jim@jimpinto.com or view his writings at www.JimPinto.com. Read the Table of Contents of his book, Pinto’s Points, at www.jimpinto.com/writings/points.html.