27 August 2009

Pinto’s Point

Future of healthcare

By Jim Pinto

No, I will not join the political debate on U.S. Healthcare. Rather, I would like to point out some inescapable facts, plus show some of the technology advances that will likely make a difference over the next few years.

As a society, we are living longer and better than at any time in history. Death rates are down, long-term disability is down, life expectancy is higher than ever, and we are making progress against the most serious diseases we face.

As costs increase, we cannot sustain present healthcare models. Technology will cause private health insurance to disappear; social pressure to provide equal access to care will remain. Governments will replace markets, insuring the poor and uninsurable receive medical treatment at the same time the healthy are forced to participate in a comprehensive system. Everyone will receive adequate healthcare, though access to the most expensive treatments will be restricted only to those who can afford them.

A major problem will be the prevention, treatment, and management of diseases suffered by the aging Baby Boomers. In the year 2000, there were roughly 35.6 million Americans aged 65 and older. By 2030, this number should double to 71.5 million. Diseases like diabetes and Alzheimer’s represent a growing threat to keeping healthcare affordable. We must do better in our lifestyles and in our healthcare system to avoid the enormous economic burden of our aging population.

The new administration is planning to implement a nationwide, interoperable electronic medical records (EMR) system. Many different technologies—electronic records, algorithms, remote monitoring devices—promise to streamline the healthcare system, saving money and improving services.

EMRs have the ability to radically change the way patients interact with healthcare professionals. Predictive modeling algorithms can draw on billions of health indicators and outcomes from clinical and claims data, while also considering an individual’s health. A computer can weigh the data against a patient’s particular needs and determine which treatment option is most likely to work. With a computer connection, the physician can get a treatment plan based on best practices and the patient’s unique needs.

Two companies already create remote monitoring devices designed to cut down on trips to the doctor’s office and hospital. Medtronic’s cardiac devices, for example, can send data about a patient’s vital signs via the Internet to the EMR system, which is then accessed by a physician, thus saving a trip to the doctor’s office.

Intel’s HealthGuide, a small box-shaped device for at-home use, comes with a video camera for two-way calls with a doctor. It also can be connected to devices like blood-pressure monitors and glucose meters, with results automatically sent to physicians.

Diagnostic tools like these can make a substantial difference in providing high-quality healthcare for everyone.

Related links:

• Forbes – The Future Of Health Care:
  http://www.forbes.com/2008/12/24/future-medical-technology-forbeslife-cx_rr_1224health.html
• Health Care’s Wireless Future: Vital Signs in Remote Real-time:
  http://singularityhub.com/2009/05/11/health-cares-wireless-future-vital-signs-in-remote-real-time/
• Healthcare Industry Technology Trends:
  http://www.futurehealthcareus.com/
• The future of U.S. Healthcare:
  http://newsinfo.iu.edu/issue/page/normal/84.html
• CBS News video – Improving Healthcare with “Lean” Methods”
  http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=5068497n

Behind the byline

Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and founder of Action Instruments. You can e-mail him at jim@jimpinto.com or view his writings at www.JimPinto.com. Read the Table of Contents of his book, Pinto’s Points, at www.jimpinto.com/writings/points.html.