30 July 2009

Pinto’s Point

Future of the Internet

By Jim Pinto

While PCs were once the primary means of accessing the Internet, we are now seeing devices such as PDAs and cell phones that can also access the web. Soon, everything from your car to your refrigerator will connect to the global network, machine-to-machine to provide new functionality.

Here is what the Internet will look like in 2020:

• Mobile devices will be primary connections to the Internet.
• Voice recognition and touch user-interfaces will be prevalent.
• Intellectual property and copyright protection will be continuing battles.
• Spam and virus attacks will remain major problems.
• Reduced divisions between personal time and work time, impacting social relationships.
• Current internet architecture will be improved (rather than attempts to rebuild architecture from scratch).
• Connection speeds, processing power, and memory storage will continue to increase, providing steadily improving functionality.

But, the current Internet architecture is running into problems, precisely because of its runaway success. It is on a path to a lockdown, ending the cycle of innovation, and demanding new kinds of control—against spam, virus-attacks, and sheer abuse of “free” web-based access.

Here is a major problem which few recognize: iPods, iPhones, Xboxes, and TiVos represent the first wave of “tethered appliances” that cannot easily be modified by anyone except their vendors or selected partners. These are already being used to control users’ behaviors in insidious ways: GPS systems can be reconfigured to eavesdrop on users; TiVO reports what you have been watching; cell phone e-mails can be monitored; and Google and Facebook applications can be controlled from a central source, making censorship easy. The very nature of the Internet—its innovative character—is at risk.

Several emerging technologies are under development by a consortium of 300 members, U.S. educational institutions, corporations, and government agencies. Known as Internet2, this spans the globe with hundreds of high-speed networks linked by fiber optic backbones.

Internet2 transmits data at speeds up to 100 gigabits per second, some 1,000 times faster than today’s cable-modems. This allows real-world, high speed applications, and makes way for 21st century services like interactive television, virtual 3-D videoconferencing, and other new-generation applications.

Beyond just providing network capacity, Internet2 actively engages in development of important new technology including middleware, network research, and performance measurement capabilities, which are critical to the progress of the primary Internet. A key feature will be security—to monitor, filter, and limit all traffic on the network. High-speed networks will make it possible to work in ways never possible before.

Related links:

• Internet2 - Member focused, member led:
  http://www.internet2.edu/
• Vint Cerf on the Internet’s future:
  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yv6igXryFSw
• Internet2 - It’s better, it’s faster. You can’t use it:
  http://www.slate.com/id/2120440/

Behind the byline

Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and founder of Action Instruments. You can e-mail him at jim@jimpinto.com or view his writings at www.JimPinto.com. Read the Table of Contents of his book, Pinto’s Points, at www.jimpinto.com/writings/points.html.