17 January 2008

Future of air travel

By Jim Pinto

In December 1903, the Wright brothers launched the very first human-carrying machine into the air on its own power. Their airplane was a biplane glider, powered by a 12 HP gasoline engine connected to a propeller. On the first day, their longest flight was 852 feet and lasted 59 seconds.

Within a half-century, the development of jet aircraft brought vastly improved speed and luxury. The venerable Boeing 707, the most successful jetliner ever, made its maiden flight in 1957 and is still in use. Natural extensions in size and range led to today’s 747 and Airbus jetliners, carrying hundreds of people thousands of miles, non-stop. Inexpensive air travel allowed almost anyone to travel almost anywhere in the world within a day. The globe had become a village.

Up to the end of the past century, the number of airline passengers was forecasted to grow exponentially. But this was not matched by increases in aviation capacity, which meant increasing congestion and delays. In the first years of the new century, heightened terrorist jitters and the onset of SARS have suddenly stalled the seemingly inexorable growth pattern.

So, what will happen now? What is the future of air travel? What are the major air transport manufacturers, Boeing and European Airbus, planning for the decades ahead? Bigger jumbos? Smaller, faster aircraft? Or will they come up with something entirely different?

Meanwhile, futurists still think the fantasy of a personal flying machine is moving toward reality. Many experts suggest safe, dependable personal “aircars” are not only feasible, but inevitable. A joint project between NASA and the FAA expects to outfit a nationwide system of more than 5,000 small airports connected by virtual “highways in the sky” for the use of small, safe, easy-to-fly, and inexpensive air cars. NASA and the FAA expect the system to be fully operational after about 2015.

Hey, but who knows, perhaps we will be teleporting by then. Beam me up, Scotty.

Related links:

• Airbus, Boeing Bet on Future of Air Travel
  http://abcnews.go.com/Business/BusinessTravel/story?id=418567&page=1
• Future flight: The shape of things to come:
  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3294343.stm
• An aircar in every garage:
  http://www.technologyreview.com/Infotech/13184/

Behind the byline

Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and founder of Action Instruments. You can e-mail him at jim@jimpinto.com or view his writings at www.JimPinto.com. Read the Table of Contents of his book, Pinto’s Points, at www.jimpinto.com/writings/points.html.