7 August 2008

Understanding the global numbers

By Jim Pinto

As we move forward in the new century, India (population 1.2 billion) will overtake China (population 1.4 billion) to become the world’s most populous country. While there is still vast poverty in both countries, their middle-class population is advancing quickly to produce and consume a vast amount of products and services and energy. Competition will be fierce in the global village, and future scenarios will be vastly different, even within a decade or two. Look for BIG changes.

Consider this:

• 25% of the population in China with the highest IQ’s is greater than the total population of North America. In India, it is the top 28%. They have more honors kids than we have kids.
• The brightest 10% of the people in China and India represent more than the entire population of any of the leading European countries.
• China and India are each generating more engineers and technologists per year than the U.S., and more than all the Europeans combined.
• China will soon become the number one English speaking country in the world. People usually guess it is India, but China will overtake because it mandates English in school.
• If you took every single job in the U.S. today and shipped it off to China, that country would still have a labor surplus.

Pop Quiz: In 1900, which country was the richest in the World, had the largest military, was the center of world business and finance, had the strongest education system, was the world center of innovation and invention, had the currency which was the world standard of value, and the highest standard of living?

Answer: England.

Next pop quiz: Which country will have all those characteristics in the year 2100?

Related links:

• Video – Shift Happens – Globalization; Information Age
  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljbI-363A2Q
• Powerpoint of the “Shift Happens” Video:
  http://www.slideshare.net/jbrenman/shift-happens-33834
• Karl Fisch, originator of the Shift Happens Video - Fischbowl
  http://thefischbowl.blogspot.com/2006/08/did-you-know.html

Behind the byline

Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and founder of Action Instruments. You can e-mail him at jim@jimpinto.com or view his writings at www.JimPinto.com. Read the Table of Contents of his book, Pinto’s Points, at www.jimpinto.com/writings/points.html.