28 August 2008

Futurists, futures, forecasts

By Jim Pinto

These days, one of my primary avocations is future studies. I am a professional member of the World Future Society (WFS) and the Association of Professional Futurists.

Each year since 1985, the editors of THE FUTURIST select the most thought-provoking ideas and forecasts appearing in the WFS magazine. Here are the editors’ top 10 forecasts from Outlook 2008:

• The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025. Globalization and technological innovation are driving increased prosperity.
• Wired-clothing: Technologies and tastes will revolutionize the fashion business.
• The threat of another cold war with China, Russia, or both could replace terrorism as the chief U.S. foreign-policy concern.
• Counterfeiting of currency will proliferate, driving the move toward a cashless society.
• The earth is on the verge of a significant extinction event, a biodiversity collapse 100 to 1,000 times greater than any previous extinction since the dawn of humanity.
• Water will be in the 21st century what oil was in the 20th century.
• World population by 2050 may grow larger than previously expected, due in part to healthier, longer-living people.
• The number of Africans imperiled by floods will grow 70-fold by 2080.
• Rising prices for natural resources could lead to a full-scale rush to develop the Arctic.
• More decisions will be made by nonhuman entities. Electronically enabled teams in networks, robots with artificial intelligence, and other non-carbon life forms will make financial, health, educational, and even political decisions for us.

It is a useful exercise to project the business of industrial automation over the next 5-10 years. Let me do that by posing a few points to ponder:

• The automation top 10 will include companies from China and India.
• Major automation growth will come through small and medium-size businesses.
• Software and services will be primary offerings for all automation majors.
• Hardware products will be commodities.
• Industrial wireless will generate major growth.
• Tiny (nanotech) wireless sensors will proliferate; Zigbee will be big.
• Factories will be designed to be movable—to where resources are located.
• Robotics markets’ growth will accelerate.
• ISA membership will grow to more than 70% international.

Those are my nine forecasts for automation. I would like you to provide your suggestions for at least one more, or dispute one of my forecasts. Drop me an e-mail at jim@jimpinto.com.

Related links:

• Top 10 forecasts for 2008 and beyond:
  http://www.wfs.org/Nov-Dec%20Files/TOPTEN.htm
• Forbes – The Futurists:
  http://www.forbes.com/technology/2007/10/13/futurist-business-consultant-tech-future07-cx_ee_1015futurist.html
• Technology and market predictions for 2008
  http://r.listpilot.net/c/isa/2bcplu8/1cz71

Behind the byline

Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and founder of Action Instruments. You can e-mail him at jim@jimpinto.com or view his writings at www.JimPinto.com. Read the Table of Contents of his book, Pinto’s Points, at www.jimpinto.com/writings/points.html.