6 September 2007

Water wars on horizon

By Jim Pinto

Oil has always been a cause of conflict. Since oil was discovered in the Middle East, countries have squabbled over borders that would give them access to new riches. In Iraq today, many think oil is the root cause of the war. Imagine the world’s response if oil was suddenly discovered in Darfur.

In the future, something else will start taking over from oil as the likeliest cause of conflict. Water is an ever scarcer and more valuable commodity. The fear is as populations grow and development spreads, vicious battles will erupt between water-rich and water-poor nations, particularly in major river basins where upstream nations control the flow of downstream water.

The doomsayers warn global warming will only make things worse by decreasing rainfall and increasing evaporation in critical areas. Our future will involve scarcity of water, though forecasts of vast deserts are exaggerated.

Many of the arguments that apply to peak oil are also applicable to water. If the current rates of growth in supply and demand continue, then water will become a very scarce resource. As water becomes more and more scarce in populated areas, conflict will inevitably be the appropriate response to water shortages.

Are we heading for an era in which rivers, lakes, and aquifers become national security assets worth fighting over? With water availability shrinking across the Middle East, Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa, violent conflict between states is increasingly likely. Major government agencies, including the CIA, have already raised the specter of future “water wars.”

Mark Twain once said, “Whisky is for drinking, water is for fighting over.” In August, experts from 140 countries gathered at the annual World Water Week forum in Stockholm. Perhaps the ghost of Twain will be present as they debate the links between water scarcity and violent conflict.

Related links:

• The World’s Water:
  http://www.worldwater.org/conflict.html
• Wars for Water:
  http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17997785/site/newsweek/
• World Water Week 2007:
  http://www.worldwaterweek.org/

Behind the byline

Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and founder of Action Instruments. You can e-mail him at jim@jimpinto.com or view his writings at www.JimPinto.com. Read the Table of Contents of his book, Pinto’s Points, at www.jimpinto.com/writings/points.html.