10 May 2007

Future challenges: How will we react?

By Jim Pinto

The years tick off on the calendar of the new century. More than ever before, there are new opportunities, challenges, dangers, and possibilities. Already, in the first decade, the world is undergoing an epochal shift to a new era.

Demographics: Nearly 50% of the global population is under the age of 25—the largest youth generation in history. The overwhelming majority of these young people live in the developing world. Most of them know about the quality of life in the West, and most have seen and used computers and cell phones.

Global oil supply: Demand for oil is growing, from 79.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2003 to 84.3 mbpd in 2005, with China and India accelerating. World oil production has stalled at about 84 mbpd, while demand has already exceeded that. Up to now, oil importers used mostly economic and political means to compete for oil, but countries will inevitably resort to military strategies soon. Indeed, many think oil is the primary reason for U.S. involvement in Iraq. Finding new energy alternatives is an imperative.

Species extinction: Humans continue to destroy other species at an alarming rate. We are beginning to disrupt the vital functioning of ecosystems on which all life depends. The speed of species extinction has forced scientists to refer to the current era as the sixth extinction event, comparable only to five other events in the past billions of years. Most researchers say it is not too late to reverse the trend, but will humanity heed the warnings?

Climate change: Earth is already as warm as at any time in the last 10,000 years, and is within 1°C of being its hottest for a million years. Another decade of business-as-usual carbon emissions will probably make it too late to prevent northern ecosystems from triggering runaway climate change.

Biotech and genetic engineering: Livestock cloning is common, and the U.S. FDA said cloned animal meat and foods are safe. How long before human clones and genetically engineered human babies become common? What are the social and societal impacts?

The “perfect storm”: The breakdowns in multiple sectors will come from increasingly sophisticated terrorism, serious global shortages of drinking water, growing population pressures, and the possibility of other shocks. The convergence of climate, oil, and financial trends alone could produce a confluence of crises—a “perfect storm”—that will change the future of humanity on this planet.

My own view is positive and optimistic. Humans are resourceful; and even with accelerated change, new systems and technology will inevitably develop to bypass the frailties of the old world. The new world will be highly interdependent and connected. The complexity of our present communications systems link individuals in ways that would have seemed impossible just a couple of decades ago.

As the ability to interact in increasingly more sophisticated ways develops, humanity will begin to act more like an organism, rather than unrelated individuals and nationalistic groups. Concepts and perspectives will infect the “global brain” and produce behavior never before seen. We will rapidly become citizens of this planet, and ecological interconnectedness will rapidly become obvious. Solutions will emerge from several different sources.

Related links:

• Visit The Arlington Institute:
  http://www.arlingtoninstitute.org/
• View from the future:
  http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070108/solnit
• Trends, forecasts and future views:
  http://www.aacc.edu/future/futuretrends2.cfm
• Energy – The Bottomless Well:
  http://www.jimpinto.com/writings/bottom.html

Behind the byline

Jim Pinto is an industry analyst and founder of Action Instruments. You can e-mail him at jim@jimpinto.com or view his writings at www.JimPinto.com. Read the Table of Contents of his book, Pinto’s Points at ww.jimpinto.com/writings/points.html.