04 September 2002

Peter Drucker on 'the near future'

By Jim Pinto

At 92 (born in 1909), famed sage and management guru Peter Drucker is more than ever incisive, challenging, and mind stretching. In his latest articles, published after 11 September, he explained how the future will differ from today and what we need to do to prepare for it.

The "new economy" may or may not materialize, but there is no doubt the next society will be with us shortly. In the developed world-and probably in the emerging countries as well-this "new society" will be more important than any "new economy." It will be quite different from the society of the late twentieth century and different from what most people expect. Much of it will be unprecedented. And most of it is already here or is rapidly emerging.

In the developed countries, the dominant factor in the next society will be the rapid growth in the older population and the rapid shrinking of the younger generation.

Will the corporation survive? Peter Drucker insisted it will, but not as we know it. In the future, there will be not one kind of corporation but several different ones. Legally and perhaps financially, it may look much the same. But instead of there being a single model everyone adopts, there will be a range of models to choose from.

Drucker's most recent book Management Challenges for the 21st Century (2000) includes new and revolutionary ideas and perspectives on the central management issues of the new century. This book is forward looking and forward thinking. Those who prepare themselves for the new challenges today will be the new leaders who will dominate tomorrow. If you are in management of any kind, you must read this book.

• Peter Drucker - the near future
• Peter Drucker's Management Challenges for the 21st Century

Behind the byline

Jim Pinto is founder of San Diego-based Action Instruments. You can e-mail him at jim@jimpinto.com, or view his writings at www.JimPinto.com.