29 May 2002
Pinto's Point: Patterns of decline? Look outside for answers . . .
By Jim Pinto
In his interesting and very readable e-book, Cannibal Economics, author David Bell insisted that the patterns of decline in industrial automation -- the meltdowns, mergers, low margins, lost direction, etc. -- are not specific to this business. They are much broader problems that are also surfacing in dozens of other sectors, including home construction, home appliances, consumer electronics, telecoms, medical technologies, electrical power generation and distribution, and computers.
The people in each of these sectors have no experience outside the sector, so they assume the problems they're confronting are unique and don't look outside for solutions. They call it "focus," but Bell suggested it is really "myopia." Sadly, they will not find a solution from within.
Bell said, "Read some history!" He insisted what is needed is vision to see the broader patterns that apply to industrial automation and everything else. Those who look inwardly will simply spin their wheels. Those who see the broader patterns coming about will emerge the winners.
Amid accelerating global change, the collapse of the old icons of society, and the economy, this book detects the strains of a new, robust, and burgeoning world order. Bell is excited and in tune. He is a prophet of the inevitable decline of old hierarchical mechanisms and an enthusiastic seer of the rise and spread of self-organizing principles.
Chaos and complexity science was previously the realm of scientists and mathematicians who were analyzing the intractable problems of weather, cloud formations, and the like. The term chaos theory first became popular when James Gleick wrote his national best-seller, CHAOS – Making a New Science (Penguin, 1987). And now, the rule-based principles of chaos theory are being recognized everywhere: society, government, the stock market, the economy. Indeed, eminent scientist Stephen Hawking predicted: "This will be the century of complexity science." And in Dreams of Reason, Heinz Pagel insisted: "I am convinced that the nations and people who master the new sciences of complexity will become the economic, cultural, and political superpowers of the next century."
David Bell uses chaos and complexity principles to make sense of all the noise in the present-day economy. He writes in a style that makes you think he is talking to you—at once fast moving but easy to understand. He starts with graphic examples of the recent decline in the stock market, where trillions of dollars of market capitalization of technology companies that came from nowhere seemed to disappear equally suddenly. He debunks old economic theories by reviewing their roots and then shows why they are no longer valid. Indeed, he makes it evident that the old economy can no longer continue to survive and must inevitably succumb to new realities.
Bell brings excellent historical perspective, with examples of the rise and fall of centuries-old paradigms, illustrating how current societal and financial mechanisms must inevitably crumble in the wake of new technology developments and communications in a global village. But he does not preach doom. Indeed, he presents perspectives and possibilities that bode well for a new world.
David Bell comes from a technology and industrial automation background—oil exploration and industrial automation, process controls, factory automation systems—and his roots are in the instrumentation business. He gives us an interesting perspective about where we are, where we are going, and how we can develop new modes of leadership.
Read some insightful reviews of David Bell's e-book: Cannibal Economics.
Behind the byline
Jim Pinto is founder of San Diego–based Action Instruments. You can e-mail him at jim@jimpinto.com, or view his writings at www.JimPinto.com.
|
InTech Home